- "Economic Forum: Policy Lessons and the Future of Unconventional Monetary Policy" (November 6, 2015)
- Adam Posen, Peterson Institute
- Paul Krugman, CUNY
- Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Board
- Claudio Borio, BIS
- Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF
Where we are now, wow, I mean, It's... It's... why we have even talked so much about unconventional monetary policy, ... the thing is, really overwhelmingly clear in terms of macro policy under the conditions we are now living is that fiscal policy is... works just about the way that textbook macro would say it would. It actually... It even, quantitatively, ... if you go back to old Bernstein and Romer estimates for ARRA, they assumed that the multiplier is 1.5. Now we have all these IMF studies, it turns out the multiplier is about 1.5. So fiscal policy works exactly as we thought. The reason we've done talks so much about unconventional monetary policy is that we considered that, for political reasons, fiscal policy is ruled out. And the sad discovery is, it turns out, monetary policy also seems to be ruled out. And so what is the answer? I have no idea. Thanks.